INDUSTRY INSIGHT (PHYSICAL OIL)

Energy Advisors issued a Special Alert, Rock Beats Paper - Why Physical Barrels are Winning the Iranian Standoff. Included in the Alert is a story on UK North Sea's Forties Blend, Life Begins at $140, which focuses on the spread between Forties physical barrels and Brent futures. As oil prices remain volatile in the wake of the Feb. 28 strike on Iran, we take a quick look at 4 prior oil shocks since 2008.

Here some quick quotes:

Quick Quotes:

------- Rocks Rule. "In today's crude market, someone forgot to tell the paper traders that the rocks...the actual physical barrels pulled from the ground... are running their own rulebook."

rocks…the actual, physical barrels pulled from the ground…are running their own rulebook.."

-------- Paper-Physical Disconnect. "Algos and futures contracts are pricing 'one world' while tanker operators,

refiners, and traders with actual skin in the game are living in another."

-------Up To $50 Spread. "The scramble for physical oil from the UK North Sea caused the Forties Blend to reach nearly $150/bbl - a remarkable $50/bbl spread to the quoted Brent futures contract."

------- Oil Markets Reward Memory. "We've seen five oil price shocks since 2008. Today's unknown is about duration and ultimately the extent of destruction of oilfields and infrastructure around the Gulf States. This shock reminds us more of COVID and Russian Invasion rather than fundamental and lasting impacts seen during the global financial crisis or shale revolution."

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